国泰君安研报表示，展望未来，跨境出海是一门长期主义的远征。1)复盘近10年来跨境电商行业的成长史，①从粗放式铺货走向精细化管理，反映在存货周转与供应链管理能力的跃升；②从白牌为主走向品牌崛起，部分公司核心品类的知名度、品牌力、份额均增强；③从单一渠道/区域走向多元渠道/区域，新兴市场电商渗透率低、发展空间巨大；因此头部公司的增长韧性与中小公司逐步拉开差距，2025-26年板块内更多上市公司将跨越百亿营收大关；2)Q2以来虽国际物流运输价格显著上涨、美国政策方面存在不确定性，但部分公司通过优化头/尾程配置实现成本费用改善，亚马逊的支持政策亦在一定程度上抵消不利影响；3)随新渠道、新区域等的崛起，我们看好头部公司延续较好表现。出海长期仍具高景气度，推荐业绩韧性强、受外部风险影响相对低的标的。
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