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文 | orange
“业绩不好”“压力很大”“运气挺差”……这些看上去“不太友好”的词，最近成了泡泡玛特不得不面对的现实。
但有意思的是，与泡泡玛特发展路径几乎一致，作为其“同胞兄弟”的卡牌，却迎来了截然相反的发展势态。有报道称，国内知名的卡牌公司——卡游，2020年营收约为30亿元，净利润超15亿元，这一年，泡泡玛特的净利润不过5.24亿元，前者超出后者近3倍。
而这个夏天，被“孤勇者”们包圆的“奥特曼卡牌”便是这30多亿的核心。
卡牌，在外行人看来，不过是印着各种动漫人物的卡片，但在钟爱者看来，却是一场酣畅淋漓的“收集之战”，作为收藏品、竞技品、欲望的满足品，卡牌泛化出了社交货币、体育竞技、待机升值的多元价值，成为消费者市场、资本市场持币观望的“期待赛道”。
与此同时，在泡泡玛特受困于“IP”“盲盒”，急于寻找第二增长曲线的背景下，卡牌所沿用的“盲盒”路径是否会失效？大量入局者参与，产品价值是否会被稀释？生于“盲盒”的卡牌，经历了跑马圈地的飞速发展后，在存量时代的游戏市场众，卡牌的“下一道光”又在哪里？
01
年盈利15亿，
火起来的卡牌生意
“爱你孤身走暗巷”的暗号可能会对接失败，但一句简单的“换卡吗？”，有99%的可能性会让一个小男孩停下他匆忙的脚步，期待的望向你。
今年夏天，一则#家长花200万给娃集奥特曼没集齐#的话题登上热搜，随之，“闲鱼‘奥特曼竖字卡ssr终极赛罗SCS-009’卡牌售价1499元”、“勒布朗·詹姆斯的球星卡拍出240万美元”、“一张《游戏王》纪念卡牌起拍价80元一路飙只8732万”、“万人围观拆卡直播”等热议话题接连出现。
人们开始意识到，这个曾经吸引80、90后的“玩具”，开始了收割00、10后的行动。
卡牌又称为纸牌，属于桌面游戏的一种，国内最简单的卡牌游戏莫过于斗地主。目前流行的卡牌又可分为收藏卡和竞技卡，竞技卡即集换式卡牌，消费者通过收集卡牌，然后根据相应的策略，使用不同的卡牌，组合成符合规则的套牌进行游戏。换卡，便是集换式卡牌游戏完成任务的核心。
对于很多人来说，集换式卡牌并不陌生，小时候吃的小浣熊干脆面、玩的扭蛋、五毛钱的大礼包中，商家为了吸引顾客会设计形形色色的“卡牌”，要想收集全，那就多购买。只不过当时国内卡牌们的功能更倾向于小孩子收集娱乐，竞技性属性仅限于朋友之间的游戏。
1993年美国，万智牌诞生，作为世界上第一款集换式卡牌游戏，在整个发展过程中，形成并发展起了一整套的产品矩阵和游戏规则，这也由此带动了全球卡牌生意的规模化、市场化、整体化。
与儿时水浒牌、妖怪牌、明星牌、奥特曼卡牌单纯“玩”的属性不同，目前国内卡牌生意覆盖的领域更加广泛、市场更多元、产品更丰富。
品牌方面，据新消费Daily不完全统计，目前国内从事卡牌活动头部品牌包括华立科技、卡游动漫、云涌控股等，新锐品牌包括杰森动漫、卡淘、BAYC、范斯猫、Hitcard 等。此外，泡泡玛特、52TOYS等头部潮玩品牌，和平精英、王者荣耀等头部游戏品牌，也围绕重点IP，进行联名，设计自己的卡牌。
资本市场方面，红杉资本、B站、米哈游等纷纷持币入局，不完全统计，目前已完成融资的卡牌品牌超七家。
盈利方面，根据华立科技此前公布的财报显示，2021年公司营收6.27亿元，同比增长47.55%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润5253万元，同比增长14.06%，其中包含奥特曼卡牌的动漫IP衍生业务营收同比增长156.52%至1.75亿元。而在上个月公司公布的2022年半年报中，虽然受到了疫情的影响，但公司还是实现营收入 2.57亿元，同比增长 2.98%。
与此同时，国内另一卡牌企业——卡游，虽然没有公布具体的营收金额，但业内人士表示，卡游目前的市场估值已经超10亿美元级别。此外，云涌控股也于今年1月传出消息，披露其已向港交所递交招股书，拟于港股上市。
值得注意是，搭上NFT风口，具有集换式卡牌属性的品牌BAYC（Bored Ape Yacht Club，无聊猿游艇俱乐部）成立不到一年，总成交额已经超过15亿美元。
根据华经产业研究院数据显示，2020年全球集换式卡牌游戏市场规模已达111.3亿美元，预计2027年市场规模将扩大至312.6亿美元。
童年的记忆，不过是卡牌生意里附带的情感部分，在市场、品牌、资本的助力下，简单的一张卡牌，凭借生产的低准入门槛和较强的社交裂变属性，将产品边际效益不断放大，释放着千亿赛道的市场潜力。
02
“稀缺”的游戏
拿捏“好胜”的少年
“每周末领着他逛街，只要有卡牌的门店，他一定会进去买几盒，一盒虽然也就20块钱，但每次都买七八盒，坐在店里和其他的孩子拆卡交换，最后只留下了一两张”，刘女士向新消费Daily表示，虽然自己的儿子喜欢卡牌的时间不到三个月，但她已经在这上面花了超五千多块钱了。
在探店卡游北京富力广场店时，店员向新消费Daily介绍，因为是工作日，而且学生们已经开学了，所以店内的人数很少，只有个别父母会顺道买几盒，但一般情况下，周末会有非常多的孩子和家长来这里购买卡牌，平均客单价在100-200元之间。
新消费Daily观察发现，店内的产品多数为奥特曼卡牌，有十元包、二十元包、五十元包，还包括数十元不等的卡册、笔记本、中性笔等周边产品以及几百元的盲盒。
为什么有人会持续喜欢一张小小的卡牌？它的诱惑力到底在哪里？
首先是集换式卡牌的盲盒属性、娱乐属性、社交属性、收藏属性。
干脆面里的“再来一包”、扭蛋中的小玩具、洞洞乐里的五毛钱……未知带来的好奇是产品强大吸引力的动力，和泡泡玛特的吸引力相同，一个小盒的魔力来源于“拆盒的惊喜”。加之品牌方不定期更新卡包，始终保持新鲜感的活跃度，再次强化了用户购买的粘性。
“正因为补充包卡牌都是不确定的，玩家才会在开包时有不一样的情感：开到没有的卡你会感到开心，开到已有的卡你会感到失落。这也正是为什么万智牌的商业模式会如此成功：它一直诱惑着消费者去购买更多的卡包，而玩家也会尽其所能花钱去收集卡牌。”美国游戏设计师Greg Costikyan在《游戏中的不确定性》里如是说。
同时，越来越多的IP授权，也让卡牌的娱乐属性配合圈层化社交加速产品传播。明星卡牌、动漫卡牌、影视剧卡牌……作为情感经济中的社交货币，强化了卡牌的传播力。同时，卡牌发展过程中产生的收藏属性，再次让产品价值冲破时间的限制，强化市场留存度。一直在粉丝圈活跃的球星卡，凭借稀缺性、定制化具备了收藏升值的潜力价值。
此外，便是品牌方的市场推动。
1.借助赛事升级产品价值
当下国内最大的集换式卡牌游戏（TCG）赛事为“卡游英雄对决系列赛事”，由卡游动漫打造。据悉，目前该赛事已在全国103座城市举办了142场比赛，包含店铺认证赛、巡回赛、SP赛、大区公开赛、全国大奖赛、全国冠军赛等多线程的系列赛事，累计参赛人数超过15000人。
在刚刚落下帷幕的“2022卡游杯英雄对决全国冠军赛城市巡回赛”中，体育运动员田亮为冠军颁奖。据主办方介绍，卡游英雄对决系列赛事已经成为承载玩家成长、社交，发挥独特创造力的场景平台，也成了所有TCG玩家期待的标志性赛事。
根据财通证券研报，大多数经典的集换式卡牌游戏，其生命周期均超过10年，甚至不乏持续热度超20年的产品，其背后的重要原因之一是赛事社交属性带来的强大黏性。
2.划分卡牌等级，调整稀缺产品的比例
据了解，目前，奥特曼卡片的R、SR、PR、UP银、UP金、SSR模、SSR、SSR闪等级，在普通游戏卡盲盒中可以抽到，而HR、HR横、UR银、UR金、UR签名、CP、LGR银、LGR金、SP银、SP金等稀有卡片，只有在特殊游戏卡盲盒中才能抽到，概率极低。
一位资深奥特曼卡牌玩家在卡牌的产品测评中表示，目前最难抽的奥特曼卡片是永恒闪耀特利迦红gp卡，大概九个豪华版的卡盒才能拆出一张，换算下来，大约540元抽到一张，还得凭运气。当然，这也带动了卡牌二手市场的活跃，即使高出原价数十倍的价格，也会有很多人想要。
3.打造多元销售渠道，直播催化卡牌市场活跃度
新消费Daily搜索发现，目前，小红书中与“拆卡”有关的笔记超9万+篇，而抖音中，进行24小时“拆卡”直播的账号也不再少数，主播们通过暴躁式拆卡、沉浸式拆卡、悬念式拆卡等方式，打开不同类型、不同IP的卡牌，并借助娱乐化的语言、动作、行为将惊喜效果拉满。业内人士分析认为，拆卡直播的背后，是利用“情怀+盲盒+收藏”，以视觉化的方式引流，提高买单力、宣传力，就像是传统彩票销售站“台前化”，用娱乐效果帮助卡牌传播。
传统的卡牌产业链主要分为上游获取IP授权、卡牌游戏开发-中游游戏发行运营-下游销售渠道端，其中销售渠道又可以分为批发商和零售商，包括线下的品牌旗舰店、玩具店、游乐场、学校周边的小店、精品店等，线上的电商平台、品牌小程序、品牌官网等。无疑，新兴的拆卡直播，作为线上流量的引爆区，成了卡牌新的增长渠道。
好玩、好胜、好新的少年们，遇上了神秘性、竞技性、持续更新的卡牌，活跃的市场成了必然的结果。
03
万物皆可“卡牌化”，
卡牌的“下一道光”在哪里？
泡泡玛特的泡泡都要破了，卡牌的“泡泡”还能走多远？
卡牌目前面临的问题并不少。一方面来自消费市场的质疑，作为以未成年人为核心消费者的“娱乐化”产品，其价值和意义体现在哪里？在心智尚未成熟的人群中，盲目攀比、豪掷千金、铺张浪费等问题对他们的价值观是否会有负面的效应？这些是出钱的家长们的疑虑。
此外，有媒体采访相关厂家获悉，如果需求量大，一张卡牌的制作成本最低仅需7分钱，但单张卡牌的售价却达到0.3-0.8元，如果按照0.1元进行计算，每张卡牌收益最低也有2毛钱。这种暴利吸引着大量“山寨品”，不仅对侵犯了版权，而且扰乱了正品市场的有序发展。
同时，市面上出现的“IP乱象”，也威胁着卡牌生意。稍有名气的IP开始盯上“卡牌”这块肥肉，通过营造“定制”“限定”的噱头，让整个市场充斥着“万物皆可卡牌化”的氛围，但卡牌的价值，是稀缺而非规模。
另一方面来自资本市场的质疑。
首先是卡牌业务模式分布，从云涌控股的财报中可以看到，其主要业务包括游戏及收藏品批发、集换式卡牌游戏及相关配件的零售、电子游戏发行三块。但数据显示，云涌控股业务高强度依赖批发业务，即集换式卡牌、游戏机和电子游戏等，占比达到95.4%。
其次是IP受限，当下知名大IP已经被瓜分完毕，那么后续产品创新有来自何方？单纯的系列打造，能否有更体系化的产品支撑？没有IP的卡牌也就没了存在的价值，如何利用好手里的IP也是卡牌需要考虑的地方。
最后便是消费者的流动性和不稳定性，少年们终会成年，当卡牌失去了曾经的少年，对于下一批的市场教育是否能够延续上一次的逻辑，成年的世界又需要什么样的卡牌？
正如每次产品上新，都能引发一场“卡牌界”的大狂欢，万智牌能够延续近三十年的历史，不无道理。与单纯依赖某个IP不同，万智牌的形象“帝国”涉及影视、娱乐、动画等领域，包括神话、宇宙、未来、复古等概念，有着强大的故事线和历史逻辑。同时在产品设计上，兼具了艺术性和商业性，为产品收藏做好了铺垫。
卡牌的故事时来已久，卡牌的路还需要更长远的探索，始终会有人相信“光的存在”，但能留住卡牌的是消费者“眼里的光”。
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在《黑神话：悟空》这款备受期待的游戏中，许多玩家希望能够在入门级显卡的配置下保持流畅的游戏体验。高端显卡当然可以大胆的把画质设置调高，中低端的显卡要考虑的事情就多得多了。好消息是，…
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七夕节陪孩子卖婚纱，我们赚了什么
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8月4日农历七夕节，我和孩子“蓄谋已久”打算在这天做点小生意——卖一种带灯的婚纱。这是我们精心挑选的认为适合这个夏天也适合这个节日的产品。 T宝买的led灯头纱 说起“蓄谋已久”，…
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银行卡长期未使用，欠费了怎么办？易良律师：可采取以下措施→
公益普法简报·2024年第76期 6月25日，红网《问法湖南》栏目共收到律师回复76次，主要咨询领域为房产纠纷、银行债务、劳动纠纷、劳动保障等。 热心律师主要有：湖南金…
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喜迎2023，我们来换种快速赚钱的方式
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“快速赚钱”，这四个字好似有股特殊的魔力，使人欲罢不能。 几乎有三分之二的负债的伙伴们找到我，第一句话都会先提出自己想寻找“快速赚钱的方法“。 所以在2023新年到来的第一天，我用…
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梳理网上能赚钱的生意
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我是小维帅帅，是一个热爱写作的农村男孩，点击关注我，每天为你分享【自媒体写作+个人精进】干货。 很多年轻人特别是宝妈都想在网上、在手机上做生意、赚钱。手机上做生意，就是把互联网作为…
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2023年最有发展前景的创业项目，月利润2万多，这3个项目最合适
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聊起现如今的小买卖，其实很多行业都是在咬牙坚持着！尤其是在这几年，各行各业都有不少被淘汰出局的生意人，即便是有些行业能坚持下来，那大多数也都是举步维艰！ 在这种时候，对于我们普通…
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网络投资小项目有哪些好处（投资小的网络项目）
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什么生意才是好的生意呢？ 从公司的角度来说，肯定是市场大、利润高、有护城河的生意是好生意。比如苹果手机，市场非常大，利润也非常高，一台机子成本可能也就千把块钱，但是能…
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邹平市西董街道白云涧村特色产业奏响乡村振兴“致富曲”
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通讯员 魏晓 初秋时节，走进邹平市西董街道白云涧村，只见在蓝天白云、青山碧树的映衬下，一座座白墙灰瓦、随坡就势的特色民宿错落有致，一条蜿蜒清澈的涧水渠穿村而过……在村庄北头，茶叶大…
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2023年创业项目排行榜前十名
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现在各个行业都不太景气，进入疫情时代的这几年，社会发生了翻天覆地的变化，房价开始跌了，互联网大厂都频繁裁员，搞的餐饮可能被迫停业，外出旅游人数骤减，公务员参与降薪计划，大家都在勒紧…
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创业项目最新思路赚钱最多的是什么？短视频创业运营方案
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现在很多创业都和短视频相关，那么通过短视频怎么创业？创业公司怎么从存活迈向平稳？尤其是在社交电商方面。 答案：顺应市场需求，顺应客户需求。 那应该怎样做？ 一、公域流量 1、市场 …