今年抢粮的贸易商压力比较大


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今年生意不好做啊!高价存小麦的粮商亏是肯定的了。。。。市场是残酷的,去年东北大哥们赔得一塌糊涂,今年对华北大哥们也是重伤。

2023年小麦最低收购价又到了关注最高的时间!

适当提高,十月份大概率会有发布,比如小麦最低收购价提高60元/吨,这样便会恢复最高的1.18元/斤的托市收购价格水平,最高应该不会超过100元/吨。即便如此,同市场价格仍然有大几百的价差,托市收购对目前市场的影响很小。(至于会提高多少且待政策公布,以上只是举例)

今年抢粮的贸易商压力比较大

但是托市拍卖对市场的影响就大了,一般托市拍卖底价是收购价格加50元/吨,倘若调增100元也就是2400元的收购价,那么托市拍卖底价也会提高到2450元/吨。所以,国家手中的3500+万吨的托市小麦对小麦市场来讲就是个杀手锏,一旦形势需要随时都可以拿出来。

从供需的基本面来看,本年度的小麦生产和消费是供过于求的,无非就是国外局势动荡,今年的老百姓格外惜售,目前农民手中余粮仍有三成左右,会持续供应市场。如果小麦没有其他被替代的价值,那么小麦的价格不会继续走高,量多价低、量少价高,无论现在怎么蹦哒,小麦的价值都会基于供需基本面进行不断修正的。

今年对于很多贸易商来说都是比较残酷的,无论储存小麦还是玉米,大多都出现浮亏,尤其是利用第三方仓库、第三方资金的贸易商,其亏损的更多。

手中有粮、心中不慌,这是基于广义的看法,比如国家对粮食储存数量及品种结构的设计,从狭义的个体来看,今年手中有粮的贸易商无一不慌,收了卖掉是要赚钱的,反而收了卖掉要赔钱,谁遇到谁窝火,无非就是没有把握住时机,当然也包括对市场供需形势及价格走势变化的节奏没有看清。

没有办法,市场是残酷的,不可能只赚不赔,去年东北大哥们赔得一塌糊涂,今年对华北大哥们也是重伤。

实际上,当某个产品的价格创历史新高后,都是很危险的,价格越高,其坚挺的时间越短,很多人往往摸顶被套也是正常的。

小麦作为口粮,国家不会放任不管的,国家对耕地的保护,对撂荒及改种其他经济作物的管控力度会加强,也就意味着粮食种植面积会稳中有增,如果老天爷也能顺风顺雨的,那么粮食产量也会稳定的。

粮食价格为什么要持续上涨?国家不会让老百姓吃不上、吃不起饭的,“确保口粮绝对安全、谷物基本自给”是我国重要的粮食安全战略,其重要性不言而喻。要理性看待看清合理上涨跟非理性上涨以及天方夜谭的价格预期,不要盲目追高、押赌后市,只会让自己陷入困境。

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